Tuesday, September 28, 2010

S&P/Case-Shiller report: Tampa Bay home prices down 3.2 percent

By Jeff Harrington, Saint Petersburg Times Staff Writer Posted: Sep 28, 2010

Tampa Bay area home prices have fallen 3.2 percent compared to a year ago, the third highest drop among 20 metro markets tracked in the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index.

The index released Tuesday morning showed home prices nationwide were up 3.2 percent from a year ago, with half the cities up for the year, some strongly. But the growth rate weakened considerably in July with the phase-out of homebuyer tax credits crimping sales this summer.

Hardest-hit markets over the year were Las Vegas, down 4.9 percent, and Charlotte, N.C., down 3.5 percent. On the flip side, California led the market rebounders: San Francisco prices were up 11.2 percent since July 2009, followed by San Diego (up 9.3 percent) and Los Angeles (up 7.5 percent).

Between June and July, Tampa Bay home prices were down a fraction, 0.2 percent., one of eight metros with a monthly drop.

Unlike some home price measures based strictly on current sales, Case-Shiller's index tracks the actual value of specific single-family homes over time. Condominiums are not included.


Comment: As is the case, all median pricing is considered micro market and Case-Shiller paints with a very broad brush. I have found that school districts are playing a very significant role in home valuation dynamics. My research has shown evidence indicating median sales price increases in those areas where public schoools are A rated. Something to ponder.

Monday, September 20, 2010

Real estate crash doesn't play favorites: Values fall across Pinellas County

By David DeCamp and Darla Cameron, St. Petersburg Times Staff Writers -Sunday, September 19, 2010

ST. PETERSBURG — Brad Dieringer's first thought when he opened his property tax bill? Pop a beer.

Taxes for his Euclid-St. Paul home stand to fall almost $660 from last year.

Better to focus on that decrease than the more depressing figure on the notice. His home is worth 25 percent less than last year, according to the Pinellas County Property Appraiser's Office.

"What else can you do?" said Dieringer, 33, a construction project manager.

Dieringer and his wife, Emily, bought the 1940 home for $205,000 near the market's peak in 2006. They've spent thousands improving its foundation, roof and siding.

Like most Pinellas County homeowners, this year's bill reflected a continual slide in values. Their home is now valued at $94,000.

On average, home values fell 14.6 percent in Pinellas, according to a St. Petersburg Times review of assessments by the Property Appraiser's Office. It was slightly worse than the 13.6 percent decline in Hillsborough County, and the 12.8 percent average loss in Pasco County.

The real estate decline hasn't discriminated, striking ritzy beach enclaves like Belleair Shore and foreclosure-ridden Bartlett Park in St. Petersburg. Both areas saw a roughly 15 percent decrease.

"It's dropping about everywhere," said Pinellas County Property Appraiser Pam Dubov.

Factoring out businesses, apartment complexes and new construction, nearly every neighborhood dropped. In the few good ones, the average rise was meager, such as 1.5 percent in Historic Roser Park.

"The only reason I can see for it is, people aren't selling," said Debra Camfferman, 56, who has lived in the historic St. Petersburg neighborhood for 14 years.

Harbordale, a community south of downtown dotted with rentals and empty homes, didn't fare as well. Homes there fell 34 percent in value, on average.

Resident Early Bryant, 57, rents a home for $400 but might someday buy, he said. It's tough to even find renters sometimes, he said, but neighbors are trying to keep up. He mowed a vacant house's lawn Thursday.

"I try to keep my alley clean," Bryant said.

Values are as of Jan. 1, and don't include costs for real estate transactions, which drive sale prices higher. But the Pinellas Realtors Organization reported sale prices falling in August from last year, too.

Fewer owners are contesting their values this year, likely because no one wants to quibble with a lower tax bill even though the number means their home is worth less.

Dubov said appeals topped out in 2008, and have been falling since. Last year, there were only 2,900 contested properties.

In isolated instances, Dubov said, some are appealing because they want a higher value to help sell the home.

As real estate rocketed, many people benefited under the Save Our Homes cap that limits taxable value from going up more than 3 percent each year.

Now, values have plummeted so much that 70 percent of owners don't qualify for the cap. The ones who benefit will see their taxable value rise — and probably their tax bill go up — because their home is still assessed below market value. For example, Camfferman will pay $1,412 in property taxes for her Roser Park home, up $65 — despite a market value actually falling $12,000.

The market crash hasn't been enough to erase inequities in Florida's system. Homes with similar values can have drastically different tax values because longtime owners enjoy protection from increases.

"I call it the gotcha of moving to Florida. You're new — gotcha!" said Dieringer, a Texas native, as he rued bigger nearby homes with lower bills.

For example, Ron Wulfeck and his wife, Paulette, stand to pay $57 in property taxes this year. (Yes, that's $57 total.) They've owned their south Dunedin house — valued at $113,000 — since 1987.

"I love my tax bill," said Ron Wulfeck, 72, a retired firefighter.

Even so, their home and neighborhood bear the mark of recession. Wulfeck said he sees a few more renters, and homes selling for drastically less than they would have gone for a few years ago.

He wanted to sell the house and retire to Ohio. That's off until values rise again.

It's the real estate pause. It cuts across homeowners young and old. People just aren't moving.

Jason Jensen, 33, an architect, bought his two-bedroom Crescent Heights home in St. Petersburg in 2002 for $142,000. He watched as the value went up, and now down. In between, he had kids and watched neighboring homes ride the same wave.

Although homes in Crescent Heights lost 15 percent in value on average, Jensen said it's a good place to live. The recession makes him take a harder look at spending money, but he's optimistic about the future there.

He has to be. He won't move soon.

Monday, September 13, 2010

Tampa Bay home prices hit 10-year lows in August, report says

By Jeff Harrington, St. Petersburg Times Staff Writer - Posted September 10,2010

Home prices in the Tampa Bay area fell to a 10-year low in August, according to a report Friday from Ybor City consultancy Home Encounter.

Home Encounter estimates that area sales prices averaged $89 per square foot last month, down 7 percent from a year ago and down 4 percent from July. Home prices and total home sales fell substantially in July following the expiration of homebuyer tax credits.

Home Encounter president Peter Murphy said there was no doubt the tax credit pushed prices higher, at least temporarily.

"Sellers asked a premium for their homes, which buyers were willing to pay to take advantage of the tax credit," he said.

Four months later, he said, prices have dropped by an average of $13,000, indicating tax credit-buyers overpaid.

The monthly report — which is drawn from Multiple Listing Service information on home closings in Hillsborough, Pinellas, Pasco and Polk counties — is a precursor to more extensive sales data from the National Association of Realtors. The Realtors' August report, which includes numbers for all of Florida, should be released Sept. 23.

Wednesday, September 8, 2010

Florida's citizens Says Sinkhole Claims Forcing Proposed Rate Hike

By Timothy F. Kirn - Insurance Journal Southeast News - 09/08/2010

At a hearing yesterday before the Florida Office of Insurance Regulation, Citizens Property Insurance Corp. officials blamed sinkholes as the major reason the public insurer needs a rate increase.

Testifying at the public hearing in Tallahassee, Paul Palumbo, a senior vice president for underwriting, said Citizens took in $19.6 million for sinkhole coverage in
2009. But the company paid out $97 million in claims costs.


Citizens is asking for an average rate increase of 8.4 percent. The average increase being asked for policies that cover homes, condominiums, mobile homes and vacation or rental homes is 9.3 percent. The rate increases would vary quite a bit depending on the area, however. Some areas would have a decrease, while in others the increase could be as high as 11 percent, Citizens said.

The rising cost of sinkhole coverage in Florida has hit all home property insurers. Last month, Insurance Commissioner Kevin McCarty announced that the
Office was surveying insurance companies about claims to get a better idea about why, suddenly, Florida insurers are paying so much more in claims costs.

Some say the reason for the raft of claims is that the public has learned about sinkholes, and people have begun making claims for any cracks they see in their
homes. Investigating possible sinkhole damage, which an insurer is required to do, can cost tens of thousands of dollars.

At the hearing, Palumbo said there has never been a catastrophic claim for sinkhole damage in Citizens history. The claims have been for cracks in driveways and other relatively minor, possible damages.

He also noted that many of the claims are coming from areas outside of the region near Tampa Bay that has historically had the majority of sinkhole problems, the so-called "sinkhole alley" of Pasco and Hernando counties. According to Citizens, there have been about 300 claims made in the Miami area since the start of 2008.

Lynne McChristian, florida representative of the Insurance Information Institute, said in a telephone interview that the fact that Citizens is having a sinkhole problem is not a shock. But the extent of its problem is striking.

Almost 44,000 South Floridians file for Foreclosure This Year

By TOLUSE OLORUNNIPA - Miami Herald - 09/08/2010

South Florida has been home to more than $62 billion in loan defaults and 250,000 foreclosure filings since 2007, according to a report released Tuesday by Bal Harbour-based Condo Vultures.

The region -- including Palm Beach, Broward and Miami-Dade counties -- has experienced 43,980 foreclosure filings so far this year, and a total of $11.6 billion in loan defaults.

Between January 2007 and September 2010, Palm Beach County had $18.8 million in loan defaults associated with 74,399 foreclosure filings. Broward County had $26.5 million in loan defaults associated with 110,571. Miami-Dade County had $18.3 million.

The average amount for defaulting loans in South Florida is $ $253,529.20, according to the report, based on county records.


Tuesday, August 24, 2010

Homes sales tumble 19 percent in Tampa Bay area

By Jeff Harrington, Saint Petersburg Times Staff Writer - Posted: Aug 24, 2010

The expiration of homebuyer tax credits took a heavy toll in July as home sales in the Tampa Bay area plunged 19 percent from year-ago levels.

Statewide, existing home sales fell 14 percent compared to a year ago. The drop-off between June and July was even more stark, with sales off 25 percent statewide and 29 percent in the bay area.

Sales prices also turned south year over year, falling 9 percent to a median price of $130,500 in the bay area and dropping 7 percent statewide to $138,000.

Sean Snaith, director for the University of Central Florida's Institute for Economic Competitiveness, said the loss of the federal tax credit geared toward first-time homebuyers "added a double dip to what has already been a harrowing ride in the Florida housing market."

The association representing Florida Realtors took heart that condominiums sales were improving, with activity up 11 percent compared to a year ago. However, the median condo sales price last month was $87,200, down 20 percent from the year-ago level of $108,500.

Nationally, the steep drop pushed homes sales down to the lowest level in 15 years, despite the lowest mortgage rates in decades and bargain prices in many areas.

July's sales fell by more than 27 percent from June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.83 million, the National Association of Realtors said Tuesday. It was the largest monthly drop on records dating back to 1968, and sharp declines were recorded in all regions of the country.

Jennifer H. Lee, senior economist for BMO Capital Markets, called the numbers "truly gut-wrenching."

Those on the front lines of real estate describe an absolute standoff between buyers and sellers.

"What few buyers are out there circle a listing like a vulture, waiting from the day of its debut until it's left for dead, contacting us only after it has left the market to ask what it sold for and whether it's taking backup offers," said Glenn Kelman, chief executive of the online brokerage Redfin.

Times wires contributed to this report.

Plunging home sales could sink recovery

Here is an article from CNN Money regarding the latest national housing trends.

By Hibah Yousuf, CNN Money staff reporter - August 24, 2010: 4:03 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- With home sales plunging to their lowest level in 15 years, economists warn that a double-dip in housing prices is just around the corner, threatening to further slow the overall recovery.

Existing home sales sank 27.2% in July, twice as much as analysts expected, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.83 million units. Much of that drop is attributed to the end of the $8,000 homebuyer tax credit.

That credit brought buyers out in droves, as they tried to sign home contracts before the April 30 deadline. Now, two months later, sales are 34% below April's tax incentive-induced peak.

"Home sales were eye-wateringly weak in July," said economist Paul Dales of Capital Economics. "It is becoming abundantly clear that the housing market is undermining the already faltering wider economic recovery. With an increasingly inevitable double-dip in housing prices yet to come, things could get a lot worse."

The sales pace of all homes -- single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops -- is at the lowest since NAR began tracking the figure in 1999. Sales of single-family homes, which account for a bulk of the transactions, are at the lowest level since May 1995.

Inventory has also continued to climb, rising 2.5% to 3.98 million existing homes for sale. That represents a 12.5-month supply at the current sales pace, the highest since October 1982 when it stood at 13.8 months. A six-month of supply is considered normal.

5 most affordable cities to buy a house
The combination of weak demand and glut of homes has put downward pressure on prices.

And as the recession proved, the housing market and the broader economy are closely intertwined. When housing prices collapse, so does the overall wealth and confidence of Americans.

"Falling housing prices strain the overall confidence in the economy and discourage Americans from spending," Dales said. "They also mean that banks lose money on their investments and curtail lending, meaning there is less money out there to invest and boost the economy.

The NAR report showed that the median price of homes sold in July was $182,600, up 0.7% from a year ago. Just under a third of homes sold during the month were distressed properties.

Though prices have yet to fall back, Dales expects they will decline about 5% from current levels over the next six months.

On the bright side, Dales said while a drop prices will put a dent in the economy recovery, it won't lead to another recession.

"The bulk of the downward adjustment in housing prices has been achieved over the last several years, so we're not headed for a complete disaster," said Dales. "We're going to see a double-dip in housing prices, but not a double-dip in the overall economy."

Sales by property and region: Sales of single-family homes sank 27.1% in July compared to the prior month, while condominium and co-op sales tanked 28.1%.

The Midwest fared the worst last month, with sales dropping 35% to an annual pace of 800,000 units in July. that's 33.3% lower than a year earlier.

Resales in the Northwest dropped 29.5% from the previous month to an annual pace of 620,000 units.

They fell by 25% in the West and 22.6% in the South.